Trade War Crash? No?

Welcome to week 2 of April!

Last week was an absolute mess in the market!

Both major economic data; the ISM index and the Jobs report failed to beat consensus even with the already lowered consensus, back and forth media hype about the "US-China trade war", resulting in the S&P500 closing negative for the week by -1.38% even though I have expected a bullish reversal point.

So, was I wrong?

Well, even though last week's market was messy, I wasn't completely wrong and even though it did close negative for the week, it wasn't completely a bearish week at all! First of all, it was a week with 3 up days versus just 2 huge down days. Secondly, even though it was negative versus last week, the S&P500 has really only been moving sideways along its 200days moving average! Yes, a SIDEWAYS week rather than a negative week! In fact, from the higher lows that have been formed throughout the whole of last week, I am actually more convinced than ever that this IS a bullish reversal point! :)

So, what about the trade war? Do you even take that into consideration? Asked one of my students.

Well, the thing about politics is this, it usually works out eventually in a way that everyone can accept and move on in life from. US and China has been bickering over trade for decades, these bickers is not likely to make a dent in the overall scene of things as it will just fall into a place where everyone can be happy again eventually.

As such, I continue to stand by my outlook that this is when the intermediate correction ends and the bulls resume all the way to the end of the year before the REAL market crash begin.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend. 

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